Climate and energy policy: unintended long term consequences of short term decisions
The 2022 update of global forecasts of Limits to Growth show that global climate change will drive advances in resource efficiency, and the focus will shift from per capita income to human well-being. However, it will bring future growth in population and GDP that will be constrained by rapid fertility decline due to increased urbanization, shift of income from well-being to adaptation costs, productivity decline as a result of social unrest. The project aims to answer two research questions: What are the unintended long-term consequences of short-term decisions of climate and energy policy in the post-Soviet country? What impact they will have on the national economy, environment and society? The research will be carried out based on system dynamics modelling approach. Existing national energy and climate model will be supplemented with sub-models representing economy, environmental and social structures. It will be used to simulate planned and alternative climate policies to assess their long-term consequences in the specific context of East un Central European countries. Different indicators will be used to assess the impact, including, energy access, energy affordability, community cohesion, employment, distributional and equity issues, livelihoods and poverty, procedural justice, subjective well-being, social tension, GDP, climate adaptation costs, environmental pollution. Finally, open access Internet based Interactive Learning Environment will be developed.
PROJECT FUNDED BY:
Latvia’s state budget Fundamental and Applied Research Project
Project No. lzp-2023/1-0128
PROJECT DURATION:
1st January 2024 – 31st December 2026
PROJECT BUDGET:
300 000,00 EUR
SCIENTIFIC LEADER OF THE PROJECT:
Andra Blumberga
PUBLISHED:
30.01.2024.
